2012 Financial Predictions

The new year will bring with it tremendous changes and a continuing shift in wealth from the world’s working populations to the banking sector controlled by the Federal Reserve. Generally, the financial direction will be toward the downside for working people in the form of increasing inflation and rising unemployment and to dramatic upside for the global financial sector. Concentration of wealth will also continue within each national financial sector relative to the general citizenry.

Quantitative easing (money-printing) by the Federal Reserve and its central banks will continue outside the public view which will give the impression of a “slow growth” recovery until very close to the November elections. At this point, the Federal Reserve will decide whether it will change from Democratic President to a Republican one by adopting a “public” quantitative easing policy. A public QE will have the effect of dumping the current Democratic President.

The Federal Reserve will also adopt a “social fairness” policy of assisting those with “underwater” home mortgages with direct grants through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in order to mitigate public opposition to Twist and quantitative easing policies.

Thus, 2012 will be a year of robust activity on the world stock markets boosted by the Federal Reserve in the first half of the year that will hide the fiscal reality from most people. After the November election, there will be a significant “adjustment” to allow the real economy to absorb the malinvestments caused by the easy money policies, in other words, a recession to allow housing market and the dollar to find their real bottom.

Given the above, below are the top 12 predictions for 2012 from jaimeoperez.com:

1. Quantitative Easing – The Federal Reserve, in conjunction with world central banks and sovereign states, will continue an accelerated quantitative easing policy outside the view of the public that will temporarily boost the world stock markets and support the idea that a “recovery” is occurring;
2. Stock Market Wins and Loses – The price of the stock market in dollars will continue to rise consistently for the first two quarters of the year. Volatility will diminish, largely in response to the Fed Reserve quantitative easing policy but it will lose, at least, 25 percent of its current value by the end of the third quarter and continue to slide the remainder of the year propped up only until the November election in the US;
3. Global Recession – The largest trading nations will experience a global decline in GDP output and the UK, Europe (including Germany) will experience a deep recession;
4. US Flat Growth - The U.S. will experience flat growth (less than 1 percent);
5. 10 percent inflation – US price inflation will increase at a rate of 10 percent;
6. Civil War – There will be a marked increase in civil conflict across the globe between citizens and their police and military forces;
7. Israel-Palestine Talk – Conversely, there will be a major, behind the scenes effort to reduce middle east tensions because of the impact such a war might have on global economic activity;
8. Dollar Devalues – The dollar will lose half of its value;
9. Silver ComeBack – Precious metals will rise in price and value gradually in first three quarters and then increase dramatically by fourth quarter;
10. US Unemployment Up - Unemployment in the US will rise to 11 percent (19 overall) by the third quarter and 15 percent (24 overall) by the end of the year;
11. Global Bank Mergers - Major banks will experience short-lived and periodic bank holidays across the globe as smaller banks merge into bigger institutions;
12. Riots- U.S. bill of right protections and social internet communication will come under stress as internal stresses due to unemployment and inflation devolve into riots in major cities.

Man, the State and Empire – The Rise of Monetarchy

Man, the State and Empire – The Rise of Monetarchy – Rule by Banks

The world is coming upon a significant transformation. From villages to fiefdoms to monarchies to empires to sovereign states, the world is now poised to transition to its most significant integrative transformation since the middle of the 20th century that saw the consolidation of the nation state.

The world is moving to what President George Herbert Walker Bush referred to as a New World Order. This NWO is a Monetarchy or Rule by Banks.

Monetarchy has sucessfully implanted itself in the internal state governance of those participating in the world fiat currency markets. It has achieved sufficient integration to be rightly considered an empire (overarching entity composed of various countries and nationalities) that exercises global management of multi-state fiscal, and by extension – social, policies through a synarchic financial banking sector led by a Federal Reserve system. The Federal Reserve system is led by a Chairman who functions as the Monetarch of the transnational banking empire.

The monetarchic system is interlinked with the most powerful unipolar, devolving, constitutional and polycratic state – the United States. Polycratic refers to the exercise of the three branches of government.

Kenneth Waltz’s anarchic world order has shifted to a unipolar system supported by a fiscal matrix of fiat currency institutions. The U.S’s unipolar refers to its productive and military capacity relative to other world states. Despite enormous advances by China and Russia in developing their internal market capacity, the U.S. continues to outpace them.

Many states are in a process of nation-state devolution. Devolution is defined here as the transfer of power from the sovereign constitutions to the transnational monetarchy. This transfer of power is best illustrated by the number of technocrats filling important positions in sovereign governments. A technocrat is one that has served as a senior transnational bank official that shares the prevailing ‘equilibrium’ economics ideology, also referred to as Keynesianism.

The international system is, currently, maintained through explicit alliance among the US and a small number of strategic global state regional partners also in a state of devolution: Europe, UK-Australia-Canada, Israel, Arabia-Turkey, Pakistan-India, China, Russia, Japan, Brazil-Latin America, Indonesia-Taiwan, Africa. Importantly, those alliances are maintained through various commercial and free market agreements. These agreements are key in any effort to re-balance the relations of power in the new unipolar system.

Undergirding this emerging hierarchical system is the the fact the monetarchic empire is managed through senior banking sector technocrats sanctioned by the Federal Reserve bank.

The singular characteristic of the empire is that it has designated the US dollar as the world reserve currency and regulates its quantity. This power over the world’s reserve currency and its control of the fiscal decision process provides it with the leverage to exercise a monopoly of force through its state partner and its allies.

Technocrats from the various financial sector corporations serve interchangeably in executive branches of devolving states. Devolving states are not necessarily autocratic. Indeed, they may be democratically-elected governments. They do however share one characteristic. They are plutocracies, that is, governments increasingly composed of members of a wealthy financial class, whose role it is to enforce laws, legislate new ones and arbitrate conflicts. They are also, at least nominally, nomocracies. The legitimacy of their rule depends on the rule of law.

Plutocratic regimes ensure policies consistent with the interest of the Monetarchy because they perceive it as being in their direct financial self-interest. At the top of this empire is the Monetarch. He heads the Federal Reserve International Banking system and, although subject to pro forma oversight by the governing body of the unipolar sovereign (US), is not accountable to it.

There is are opposing dynamics within the monetarchic empire that affect its long-term viability.

On the one hand, there is the ongoing reaffirmation of constitutional democratic institutions of the unipolar sovereign state (US). This sovereign state benefits most from the empire because the Monetarchy transfers its inflation to other lesser state allies. A constitutional reaffirmation tendency can theoretically lead the polycratic state to stop the transfer of wealth from the sovereign’s citizenry to the empire’s transnational financial institutions. This implies the elimination of implicit and explicit guarantees of fiscal international trade, exchange and commercial policies.

In addition, the sudden de facto integration of various classes of global labor pools is increasing the stress within the sovereigns who are forced to rapidly reallocate labor, raw materials and other resources to the needs of the empire.

These tendencies are counterbalanced by the reserve and world currency policies supported by global sovereign governments that continually increase the military and commercial leverage of the monetarchy relative to its principal nation-state partner and other allied devolving sovereigns.

Whether the Empire is long-lived or whether the system re-balances in favor of the sovereignty of the nation state will depend on which dynamic proves stronger with its consequent policy mix.

Many despair of the economic confusion that seems to rule the news of the day as we move into 2012. They simply do not understand what is happening. Single issue micro-analysis is highly cumbersome and often confuses the reader because various complex issues and subject areas considered in isolation from the broader picture are necessarily incomplete and limited. A broader theoretical model is required.

Macro-analysis can provide a brief formal overview but has the very real danger of oversimplifying a great many complex processes. This description of a monetarchic model is an attempt to synthesize the issues in a way that is accessible to the average reader.

If you accept the theoretical framework as presented, the conclusion is fairly simple relative to what steps must be taken to restore the primacy of the nation-state. Implicit in this assertion is the normative bias toward it.

The goal here is seek and recommend prescriptions for the ailments arising from the sudden globalization tipping point experienced in 2008 not, simply, to find short-term palliatives, mitigators or superficial treatments of the global fiscal challenges.

What must be done?

To bring down an empire, the enabling sovereign nations must transform themselves from within. That means each and every American, as well as, each citizen proud of all proud national traditions have a choice to make – Restore the sovereignty of their respective nation-state or allow the continued consolidation of the monetarchic empire.

For Americans, the question is: Can we find and bring back our Washingtonian revolutionary spirit, our tea party boldness, Lincoln’s fight for unity and equality; Wilson’s hope to end all wars; Roosevelt’s affirmation of democratic values relative to the centralized party hierarchies of communism/fascism; Kennedy’s man on the moon searching the stars; Johnson’s great society, and citizen’s multiple occupy (occtupy) passions — in constructive ways that restore sovereignty to the United States?

Most importantly, can we fight to restore sovereignty without resorting to Huntingtonian bigotry?

Can we as Americans reaffirm our values of Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness?

It remains an open question.

Texas Regulation – Too Much, Too Little?

The Keystone Oil Pipeline controversy has brought to the fore the competing arguments relative to regulation. Is it too much or too little. A prominent commentator at MSNBC suggested the dichotomy was one of jobs vs. environment. He fell squarely on the side of jobs. Implicit in his position is that the environment can wait, global warming arguments, notwithstanding.

Such tradeoffs are false. There is no reason why harvesting oil and natural gas resources to diminish US energy dependence cannot occur in the context of prudent management of environmental resources. Ensuring drinking water reservoirs, rivers and streams are protected from contamination is part of the cost of doing business for companies who have the largest profit margin of any industry.

An additional point worth making is that both Texas and the US should make a distinction between national oil companies and transnational subsidiaries in terms of taxes and regulation. Texas and the US should come first. The Texas Railroad Commission should be looking at these issues with extreme care.

Texas State-Owned Bank?

N. Dakota, population 600 thousand, has a state-owned bank model with $4 billion under management. It is the depository for all state tax collections and fees; and finances bonds for public and private agriculture and economic development programs. It also awards student loans and funds disaster relief programs. Profits are reinvested into the bank and dividends are paid to the state. Over 10 years, the state general fund has received about $300 billion to offset taxes and invest in infrastructure.

Should other states consider their own bank as part of the restructuring of the federal reserve debt system?

Critique of Republican and Democratic Strategies

Republicans propose to impose an American lifestyle sanctioned by the government and austerity that implies reducing the social safety net while increasing spending on military;

Democrats propose to impose an American lifestyle sanctioned by the government and an austerity plan that implies reducing military spending while increasing spending on entitlements;

Both strategies are similarly flawed:

1. Both Democrats and Republicans are authoritarian in their desire to make American citizens live as the government would dictate while the lifestyle is forcibly paid for by taxpayers.
2. Both Democrats and Republicans do not address the problem of spending and debt through increased spending on their preferred portion of the budget.
3. Both Democrats and Republicans are allowing the on-going massive transfer of wealth from American citizens to the financial sector;
4. Both Democrats and Republicans are proposing that elderly, infirm and disabled pay for the public debt;
5. Both Democrats and Republicans want to force all Americans to conform to their policy solution relative to public debt;
4. Neither Democrats or Republicans are addressing the problem of private debt.

4 Steps To Full Employment

4 Steps to Full Employment

1. Restore Competitive Advantage — End Free Trade Agreements;
2. Restore a Balanced Federal Budget — End Federal Deficits;
3. Restore Free Market — End Too Big To Fail guarantees to financial sector;
4. Restore Free Market — End Federal Reserve QE & Twist policies that keep interest rates low.

The posts on this blog are an unpacking of various recommendations relative to the four basic steps necessary to restore full employment in the US.

National Security Policy

1. Oceans – Assign Coast Guard to secure US shores from smuggling of people, foreign military operatives and WMDs;
2. Border – Deploy National Guard to secure Canadian and Mexican threats to border residents;
3. Transportation – Transfer federal control of transportation hub security to entities that operate them;
4. Sequestration – Reduce defense cut sequestration target by 50 percent;
5. ICBM Arsenal – Reconfigure ICBM population target-centric design;
6. Preventive War – Establish new systemic evaluation for global conflicts not immediately threatening to the Republic and reassert Congressional oversight.

Personal Privacy

1. Citizens – Eliminate warrantless domestic spying and intrusion on Citizen free speech;
2. Non-Citizens – Eliminate secret prisons and torture and reinstate habeas corpus.

Social Security Policy

1. Establish an “opt-out” option for Americans wishing to end their enrollment in Social, Security, Medicare and Medicaid;
2. Establish an “opt-in” option for Americans wishing to enroll in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

Foreign Policy

1. Free Trade Agreements – Secure Border through end of Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and all other countries. Free trade was meant to work through comparative advantage not through the export of capital to establish dominance of home country producers;
2. Immigration Policy – Reform immigration system to expedite application and processing procedures;
3. Labor – Establish a Liberty W Visa for foreign workers desiring to migrate to US as requested by American owned businesses located in the US;
4. Non-Citizens – Establish a Liberty V Visa for foreign visitors in the US without permission renewable on an annual basis;
5. Non-Citizen Resdients – Establish a Liberty R Visa for foreign citizens that reside in the US without permission renewable on an annual basis with an option and process that would treat them as first time applicants for US residency;